Solar is the cheapest source of new electricity in much of the world, and yet many solar equities have been brutal to own. That tension — great technology, painful stocks — is exactly the kind of puzzle worth sitting with.
Cheap power, hard business
Falling costs are wonderful for the planet and difficult for manufacturers. When a product gets relentlessly cheaper, commodity players get squeezed. Oversupply, financing costs, and policy whiplash have reset the entire sector. This is why the Ovatek Lens weighs unit economics so heavily: a falling cost curve helps adopters and hurts undifferentiated producers.
The opportunity in a reset isn’t the cheapest stock — it’s the most defensible business that got sold off with the rest.
Where the edge survives
I’m hunting for the parts of the solar and storage value chain where differentiation holds: software and energy management, premium efficiency technology, and the storage systems that make solar dispatchable. Batteries, in particular, turn intermittent sunshine into something the grid can actually rely on.
Stance: watchful
For now this sits in the watch column. The thesis is real but the timing is delicate; higher-for-longer rates pressure capital-intensive projects. I’d rather be early with a small, defined position than catch a falling knife. The asymmetry isn’t here yet — but it’s worth tracking closely.